We Predicted Grammy Nominees in 16 Different Categories
Grammy nominations will be announced on Friday, Nov. 10. Ahead of that date, Rolling Stone is breaking down 16 different categories, from the Big Four to Best Americana Album.
Here are our predictions for each of the nominees in those 16 categories, as well as who we think will take home the statue on Grammy night (and who should).
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Album of the Year
While Taylor Swift’s Midnights and SZA’s SOS feel like the undeniable front-runners, Recording Academy voters have a habit of being at once totally predictable and totally unpredictable. Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts pipping those two albums certainly wouldn’t be a shocker, and as John Stein, Spotify’s head of North America editorial says, not winning AOTY last year might make her a good bet this year: “I think in the Grammy conversation, having an album as huge as Sour not win sets her up really nicely for this one.” Similarly, if Midnights, SOS, and Guts all split votes, there would be room for Morgan Wallen to pull away. But the dark horse might be the Foo Fighters’ But Here We Are. The band has never won AOTY, though it has been nominated twice for it. It’s easy to see voters rallying around an album that turned such a terrible tragedy into an artistic triumph — an old favorite breaking new ground under the weight of devastating circumstances. As Jaime Zeluck-Hindlin, founder of Nonstop Management, puts it: “The Grammys love them, the world loves them — that could be one that comes in and maybe surprises some people.”
The Likely Nominees: Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Foo Fighters, Gunna, SZA, Boygenius, Lana Del Rey, Morgan Wallen
Should Win: SZA, SOS
Will Win: Taylor Swift, MidnightsRead the complete breakdown for the Album of the Year category prediction here.
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Record of the Year
Morgan Wallen has one of the biggest songs of the year, and one that craftily crosses genre lines — two things Grammy voters usually respond to. But it’s an open question whether his past issues will hurt him with the Grammy electorate. “Anti-Hero” may seem an obvious pick, but Taylor Swift has never won this category, despite four noms. And other contenders may crash the party. “I could see Ice Spice with PinkPantheress getting Record of the Year for ‘Boy’s a Liar,’” says Alex Tear, the vice president of music programming at SiriusXM. That said, he sees this one as a toss-up between SZA and Miley Cyrus. “Miley stayed on our playlist for months and months. People just aren’t getting tired of it,” he says. Rob Kruz, the program director of Hot 99.5 in Washington, D.C., isn’t nearly as torn. “It’s going to be ‘Kill Bill,'” he says. “Based on what we’ve seen from the Grammy voting, I think that’ll be a very interesting choice. And it’s well-deserved.”
The Likely Nominees: SZA, Taylor Swift, Luke Combs, Miley Cyrus, Olivia Rodrigo, Morgan Wallen, Ed Sheeran, Travis Scott
Should Win: SZA, “Kill Bill”
Will Win: Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”Read the complete breakdown for the Record of the Year category prediction here.
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Song of the Year
If the biggest song of the year (Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night”) has a chance in any of the major all-genre categories, it would be here — SOTY technically honors the song’s four co-writers and not him. Ultimately, though, Wallen’s stumbles may rule out a win. (“It takes me a while to warm back up to someone who loosely throws around the N-word when they’re pissy drunk,” says Ebro Darden, the global editorial head of hip-hop and R&B at Apple Music). That’s just one reason this year feels like a showdown between Taylor Swift and SZA, with the former being the safest bet. “I like Taylor, she’s a generational talent,” says Darden. “In my world, it was more SZA, but when it comes to Grammy voting, I don’t know if SZA has the cachet and the relationships that Taylor has.”
The Likely Nominees: Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Rihanna, SZA, Morgan Wallen, Miley Cyrus, Lil Durk feat. J. Cole, Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves
Should Win: SZA, “Kill Bill”
Will Win: Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero”Read the complete breakdown for the Song of the Year category prediction here.
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Best New Artist
After a couple of years of emerging artists feeling the brunt of how the pandemic negatively affected the industry, 2023 has created a wonderful environment for young, buzzy acts to get their due. It also felt like the first year since the dawn of TikTok that labels and promoters have found effective ways to help mold viral stars into proper artists with unique identities and the groundwork to have some type of longevity.
This means that Best New Artist will be an especially tight race this year, thanks to big songs and thoroughly effective marketing campaigns helping those moments feel bigger than 15 seconds. Leading the pack is Ice Spice, whose hit remix of fellow contender PinkPantheress’ “The Boy’s a Liar” took every possible music-discovery medium by storm. Not many artists can say they pulled the attention of both Nicki Minaj and Taylor Swift before they even released a debut album. “She’s an artist’s artist,” Alex Tear, SiriusXM’s vice president of music programming, says of his pick to win. “Ice Spice fits so many cool things, from the fashion to the voice to multiformat to the mass appeal.”
Nothing’s a sure thing — the Grammys don’t have the best history with hip-hop, and fellow likely nominee Gracie Abrams has her own Taylor Swift boost. And there are plenty of other artists across genres who made their mark this year in a way that’s likely to attract some Recording Academy attention. Still, Tear is hopeful that the voting panel is getting younger and more open-minded. “Ice Spice has what it takes,” he says. —B.S.
The Likely Nominees: Ice Spice, PinkPantheress, Peso Pluma, Gracie Abrams, Coco Jones, NewJeans, Raye, Noah Kahan
Should Win: Ice Spice
Will Win: Gracie AbramsRead the complete breakdown for the Best New Artist category prediction here.
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Best Pop Vocal Album
You might think that Taylor Swift would dominate in this category, but she has just one win out of four nominations. It’s likely that voters think of Swift as so strong in the general fields that they don’t mark their ballot for her here. Miley Cyrus has a good shot, but her smash hit “Flowers” has overshadowed all of the other songs on Endless Summer Vacation; likely she will have better odds in Record or Song of the Year. But Sam Smith is a Grammy favorite, with four wins in 2015 for their debut album and the momentum of another win in 2023 for “Unholy.” Their combination of classic songcraft, diva vocals, and edge makes them the one to beat. However, Alex Tear, vice president of music programming at SiriusXM, thinks there’s one album not mentioned here that shouldn’t be ruled out: SZA’s SOS. “It’s super diverse and well-rounded,” he says. “I think she’s due.” —A.G.
The Likely Nominees: Ed Sheeran, Lana Del Rey, Sam Smith, Taylor Swift, Miley Cyrus
Should Win: Taylor Swift, Midnights
Will Win: Sam Smith, GloriaRead the complete breakdown for the Best Pop Vocal Album category prediction here.
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Best Pop Solo Performance
If it is truly “the year of the girl” as many have claimed in light of Barbie’s success, then look no further than the women in pop who dominated the charts. In addition to Number Ones from SZA, Swift, Cyrus, and Rodrigo, Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish’s contributions to the Barbie soundtrack were excellent enough to create hits for these two former Best New Artist winners, even while between album cycles. It’s a stacked field, but SiriusXM’s Alex Tear only has ears for SZA. “It’s SZA’s year,” he says. Taking home this trophy would be well-deserved for the star, but the competition is tough indeed. “Respectfully, Miley and Taylor are crushing it,” he adds. “Our audience reaction to all three are neck and neck.” —B.S.
The Likely Nominees: Miley Cyrus, Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo, SZA, Dua Lipa
Should Win: SZA, “Kill Bill”
Will Win: Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”Read the complete breakdown for the Best Pop Solo Performance category prediction here.
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Best Rap Album
There’s been intense speculation about just what’s behind the dearth of hip-hop at the top of the charts this year. It took until August for a rap album (Travis Scott’s Utopia) to top the Billboard 200. Industry experts, troubled by the shift, have been pondering: Is this a sign of a commercial decline, or is it simply due to a lack of releases from big names? Most seem to feel it’s been the latter, with a prevailing sentiment that major-label releases have been lacking. Perhaps that will be reflected in this year’s nominations. Spotify’s Carl Chery, creative director and head of urban music, says that he anticipates Gunna or Scott taking home the win for the Best Rap Album Grammy — and bear in mind that Scott has yet to win a single Grammy, despite nine nominations. But, Chery says, be on the lookout for potential vote splitting: “You always have to look at who’s nominated to see if some of the votes cancel each other out, which creates an opportunity for another artist.” Should Gunna and Scott split the vote, it could leave the door open for Nas or Killer Mike, both veteran artists doing strong work that takes in the breadth of their careers as they turn the corner on 50. Here are our picks for the Best Rap Album Grammy nominations — and who should (and will) win the trophy come February. —A.G.
The Likely Nominees: Gunna, Killer Mike, Nas, Travis Scott, Metro Boomin
Should Win: Gunna, A Gift & a Curse
Will Win: Travis Scott, UTOPIARead the complete breakdown for the Best Rap Album category prediction here.
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Best Rap Song
Prestige carries weight in the Best Rap Song category. In the 20 times this particular Grammy’s been given out since 2004, 16 of those wins have gone to just three big-name artists: Kanye West (7 wins), Jay-Z (5), and Kendrick Lamar (4), with Drake winning two times. This year, Kendrick Lamar, Travis Scott, and J. Cole have big reputations on their side. Lamar took home this Grammy in the most recent ceremony, but two years ago it was Megan Thee Stallion for “Savage,” and Spotify’s Head of Urban Music Carl Chery says he’d love to see the academy break up the male monotony again: “When you look at Sexyy Red, Ice Spice, Nicki, Cardi, all of them, some of the best songs that we’ve heard all year were by women. There’s that ongoing conversation, ‘Are women out-rapping men?’ I would like to see two or three of those slots be by women.” Coi Leray’s “Players” and Latto’s “Put It on the Floor” remix with Cardi B could both be contenders here — so could Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion’s second team-up, the recently released “Bongos.” It would be great to see the Grammys recognize the scene’s buzzing movement of women with a statement like that. Here are our picks for the Best Rap Song Grammy nominations — and who should (and will) win it come February. —A.G.
The Likely Nominees: Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar, Gunna, Travis Scott feat. Drake, Lil Durk feat. J. Cole, Ice Spice feat. Nicki Minaj
Should Win: Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar, “The Hillbillies”
Will Win: Baby Keem and Kendrick Lamar, “The Hillbillies”Read the complete breakdown for the Best Rap Song category prediction here.
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Best Progressive R&B Album
SZA is in the foreground of what the Grammys has dubbed “Progressive R&B” — R&B with deep and palpable influence from other genres, including rap, rock, and electronic music. (Many people have called this subgenre “alternative R&B.”) The Best Progressive R&B Album Grammy replaced Best Urban Contemporary Album in 2020; racial justice advocacy following the murder of George Floyd encouraged the Recording Academy to nix the term “urban,” a longstanding and inaccurate catchall term for Black music.
If not for SZA’s clear dominance this year, this category could boast a tight race. It’s had its share of blockbusters in the past, from Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange (which won in 2013) to Beyoncé’s Lemonade (2017’s winner), but as of late, less-established artists have made their mark. “[Last year] Steve Lacy was undeniably instrumental in elevating the subgenre to unprecedented heights,” says Yan Snead, music programmer for R&B, African, and Caribbean formats with Pandora. “Jordan Ward, Q, Leon Thomas, Chiiild, Jean Deaux, Amindi, Flwr Chyld, and countless others [are] killing it right now.” Spotify’s head of R&B, Alaysia Sierra, agrees. “This category is so healthy,” they say.
But as artists free themselves from distinct genres, category submissions can be a game of strategy. Sierra notes that Amaarae’s Fountain Baby could be a good fit, but might also fare well in Best Global Music Album for its international influences and her Ghanaian background. The predictably unpredictable nature of the Grammys — particularly with Black art — makes it tricky. “The Grammys always throw us a curveball,” says Sierra. “Sometimes it’s good, like, ‘I didn’t expect that — good for them. I love that album.’ Sometimes it’s like, ‘OK, that was … interesting.’” Here are our predictions for the nominees — and the winner. —M.C.
The Likely Nominees: SZA, Janelle Monáe, Daniel Caesar, Kali Uchis, Diddy
Should Win: SZA, SOS
Will Win: SZA, SOSRead the complete breakdown for the Best Progressive R&B Album category prediction here.
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Best Música Urbana Album
The academy has a tough decision that ultimately comes down to Karol G’s history-making accomplishments or Tainy’s sprawling production genius. Both artists are familiar to Grammy voters: Karol cinched her first nomination in 2022, for her album KG0516, while Tainy won last year thanks to his credits on the Bad Bunny blockbuster Un Verano Sin Ti. Despite Karol G’s momentum, the surprises on Data and Tainy’s reputation as a go-to producer might prove enough to pull the album ahead in this race: “It’s really interesting and really musical,” says Apple Music’s Latin-music programmer Jerry Pullés of Data, noting the range of inspirations from across genres and decades. “We’re talking about visionaries,” Albina Cabrera, KEXP’s Latin partnerships and editorial manager adds. “And it seems to me that this is like an elaboration, another level up, in production.” —J.L.
The Likely Nominees: Tainy, Myke Towers, Karol G, Rauw Alejandro, Eladio Carrión
Should Win: Tainy, Data
Will Win: Karol G, Mañana Será BonitoRead the complete breakdown for the Best Música Urbana Album category prediction here.
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Best Latin Rock or Alternative Album
This category can feel like a grab bag of indie and alternative experiments that don’t fit elsewhere (Rosalía’s Motomami at the last Grammy show). This year, though, it seems straightforward Latin rockers have the best chances: Juanes’ Vida Cotidiana is an industry favorite from one of the most beloved stars in the Spanish-speaking world, and Fito Páez showed he has tons of tricks up his sleeve almost four decades into his career. Juanes won this category in 2022, and Páez took home the award in 2021, but Juanes’ commercial edge — as well as his tour dates, which included a New York SummerStage concert that had to be canceled when the crowd that showed up overwhelmed Central Park — makes him the likely winner here. —J.L.
The Likely Nominees: Juanes, Fito Páez, Monsieur Periné, Él Mató a un Policía Motorizado, Diego Raposo
Should Win: Juanes, Vida Cotidiana
Will Win: Juanes, Vida CotidianaRead the complete breakdown for the Best Latin Rock or Alternative Album category prediction here.
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Best Country Album
Lainey Wilson won Album of the Year and Female Artist of the Year at the Academy of Country Music Awards in May, and she’s the likely victor in this category. But there are so many strong albums making an impact, it’s hard to say — and the field may be even more crowded. Both Buzz Brainard, who champions new country talent as a host on SiriusXM’s The Highway, and CMT’s Leslie Fram say that Jelly Roll’s Whitsitt Chapel could be a surprise nominee. “If there’s something left field, what he’s done is multigenre, he could be it,” says Fram, who predicts noms for Jelly Roll in the general fields, too. “Everything on that album is fantastic, and this guy is here to stay for sure,” Brainard adds. There’s also a new album from perennial Grammy nominees Brothers Osborne that dropped on the final day of the eligibility period, a late release that “could work against them,” Brainard says. But even if Brothers Osborne don’t crash the party, other upsetters might include Zach Bryan’s self-titled album (which debuted at Number One on the Billboard 200) and new artist Bailey Zimmerman’s Religiously. The Album. “Bailey is three pretty-good-singles deep,” Brainard says. Fram thinks Kelsea Ballerini’s repackaged Rolling Up the Welcome Mat project could be one to watch, too. “It’s a career-defining record,” she says. —J.H.
The Likely Nominees: Lainey Wilson, Luke Combs, Morgan Wallen, Ashley McBryde, Tanya Tucker
Should Win: Ashley McBryde, The Devil I Know
Will Win: Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom CountryRead the complete breakdown for the Best Country Album category prediction here.
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Best Country Solo Performance
The category is about the vocal performance, not the lyrics — which is what makes Chris Stapleton, an eight-time Grammy winner (out of 17 nominations), so hard to beat. But Luke Combs’ performance of “Fast Car” is both faithful and respectful (he doesn’t even try to change the gender of the song’s narrator to his own). Bringing a Tracy Chapman song to the top of the country charts is a feel-good story Grammy voters are unlikely to resist. On the spoiler side, newbie Megan Moroney’s charming performance of “Tennessee Orange” may be in the conversation, along with Kelsea Ballerini, who is delivering the songs off Rolling Up the Welcome Mat to a rabid audience on her tours. “If you think about what’s happened, it’s an almost Taylor Swift-like reaction in concert,” CMT’s Leslie Fram says of Ballerini’s fans. “It’s extraordinary.” —J.H.
The Likely Nominees: Luke Combs, Ashley McBryde, Lainey Wilson, Chris Stapleton, Tyler Childers
Should Win: Luke Combs, “Fast Car”
Will Win: Luke Combs, “Fast Car”Read the complete breakdown for the Best Country Solo Performance category prediction here.
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Best Country Song
This is a moment overflowing with worthy country songs, so even though this category makes room for six nominees, there are others worth considering. Megan Moroney’s “Tennessee Orange” has to be in the conversation, according to CMT’s Leslie Fram. “I listened to all her songs and was like, ‘OK, she is a real songwriter,’ ” she says. Both Fram and SiriusXM’s Buzz Brainard say Bailey Zimmerman is a strong possibility. “This kid’s brand-new, but he’s already got an international tour booked and the album sounds good,” Brainard says. Brainard would also love to see songs off Jason Isbell’s Weathervanes contend in this category: “ ‘Cast Iron Skillet’ and ‘King of Oklahoma,’ those songs are just crazy.” —J.H.
The Likely Nominees: Morgan Wallen, Jelly Roll, Ashley McBryde, Lainey Wilson, Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, Chris Stapleton
Should Win: Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor”
Will Win: Morgan Wallen, “Last Night”Read the complete breakdown for the Best Country Song category prediction here.
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Best Americana Album
Americana is a wide-open category, partly because it’s hard to define. “I always look at half of the folk category and think they are more Americana than half of the Americana nominees,” says Nelson Gullett, an Americana radio veteran and music director at WDVX in Knoxville. And as the nomination of Jackson Browne’s Downhill From Everywhere two years ago shows, Americana can be a place to honor strong late-career work from legends. So while Paul Simon’s Seven Psalms seems too experimental for this category, anything is possible — though as surprises go, a nomination for Rodney Crowell’s Chicago Sessions (produced with a bluesy twang by Wilco’s Jeff Tweedy) seems more likely, and don’t count out six-time Grammy nominee Bettye Lavette. All this said, with its disco beats, hi-hat rhythms, full string sections, and deeply personal narrative, Russell’s The Returner is a new lodestar in the Americana space that’s certain to make its impact felt widely in the next few years. The Recording Academy would be wise to recognize it as such. Even so, the feel-good comeback narrative and burst of rock energy in Lucinda Williams’ Stories From a Rock N Roll Heart is more than enough to make it a front-runner. If Russell and Giddens split the vote of Americana’s more progressive wing, it could open up space for Williams, who hasn’t won a Grammy in more than two decades. Add to that Bruce Springsteen’s backing vocals on “New York Comeback” and the fact that Williams is a legendary songwriter now in her eighth decade and you have the candidate to beat in February. “I won’t be shocked if this album wins,” Gullett says. —J.B.
The Likely Nominees: Brandy Clark, Lucinda Williams, Allison Russell, Amanda Shires & Bobbie Nelson, Rhiannon Giddens
Should Win: Allison Russell, The Returner
Will Win: Lucinda Williams, Stories From a Rock N Roll HeartRead the complete breakdown for the Best Americana Album category prediction here.
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Best Rock Album
The Foo Fighters are Grammy catnip, especially given Dave Grohl’s eager participation in the festivities. They’ve been nominated 31 times and won 15 awards, including a record five times for Best Rock Record. While they did win it as recently as 2022 for Medicine at Midnight, the emotional heft of But Here We Are makes it likely they’ll take home the statue again. “It’s a very strong album with experimental, deep cuts and deals with complex feelings of grief,” says SiriusXM DJ Justin Kade, “which a lot of people can relate to.” That said, Metallica has never won in this category despite receiving nominations for their past two records. “I think it’ll go to Metallica,” says Jason Squires, program director of KFRR in Fresno, California. “It’s their time. When you think rock, you think Metallica.” Never forget, though, that this is the Grammys, where Bonnie Raitt won Song of the Year last year over more culturally defining hits from Lizzo, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, and Harry Styles. Joni Mitchell’s comeback story is truly amazing, and there are many older voters who likely will resonate with her health struggles and draw inspiration from her return to the stage. If the guitar-rock vote splits between the Foos and RHCP, look for Mitchell to take this prize. —A.G.
The Nominees: The Foo Fighters, Metallica, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Paramore, Joni Mitchell
Should Win: Metallica, 72 Seasons
Will Win: The Foo Fighters, But Here We AreRead the complete breakdown for the Best Rock Album category prediction here.
Contributors: Jonathan Bernstein, Jon Blistein, Mankaprr Conteh, Andre Gee, Andy Greene, Joseph Hudak, Julyssa Lopez, Brittany Spanos